| 曹海明,李昌平.急性胰腺炎并发全身炎症反应综合征列线图预测模型的构建[J].安徽医药,2024,28(3):576-580. |
| 急性胰腺炎并发全身炎症反应综合征列线图预测模型的构建 |
| Construction of a predictive model for acute pancreatitis combined with systemic inflammatory response syndrome |
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| DOI：10.3969/j.issn.1009-6469.2024.03.033 |
| 中文关键词: 急性胰腺炎 全身炎症反应综合征 列线图 白细胞数 高密度脂蛋白胆固醇 胸腔积液 |
| 英文关键词: Acute pancreatitis Systemic inflammatory response syndrome Column line graph White blood cell count High density lipoprotein cholesterol Pleural effusion |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 目的分析急性胰腺炎( AP)病人并发全身炎症反应综合征( SIRS)的风险因素，构建的列线图预测模型。方法回顾性分析西南医科大学附属医院 2020年 4月至 2022年 4月收治的 370例 AP病人的临床资料，用于建模及内部验证，根据病人是否合并 SIRS分为非 SIRS组( n=273)和 SIRS组( n=97)，通过 logistic回归分析确定并发 SIRS的独立危险因素，同时建立列线图可视化预测模型，计算一致性指数( C-index)，检验模型准确性；并探讨列线图模型对 AP病人发生 SIRS的预测效能。结果 AP病人合并 SIRS发生率为 26.2%；白细胞计数、心率、并发胸腔积液为 AP病人并发 SIRS的危险因素(OR>1，P<0.05)；男性、高密度脂蛋白胆固醇( HDL-C)为 AP病人并发 SIRS的保护因素( 0 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Objective To analyze the risk factors of patients with acute pancreatitis complicated with systemic inflammatory responsesyndrome (SIRS), and to provide guidance for early clinical diagnosis and treatment.Methods The clinical data of 370 patients withAP admitted to the Department of Gastroenterology, Southwest Medical University Hospital from April 2020 to April 2022 were retro.spectively analyzed for modeling and internal validation, and patients were divided into non-SIRS (n=273) and SIRS groups (n=97) ac. cording to whether they were complicated with SIRS. The independent risk factors for SIRS were determined by multi-factor logistic re.gression analysis, and the accuracy of the model was tested by establishing a visual prediction model of the line graph and calculatingthe consistency index (C-index); and the predictive efficiency of the line graph model on the occurrence of SIRS in patients with AP was investigated.Results The incidence of SIRS in patients with AP was 26.2%; white blood cell count, heart rate, and combined pleuraleffusion were risk factors for SIRS in patients with AP (OR>1, P<0.05); gender and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol were risk fac. tors for SIRS in patients with AP. (0 |
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