| 杜森,鲍志国,周青.基于 CT影像学指标和临床病理特征构建预测胆囊癌病人预后的列线图模型[J].安徽医药,2023,27(12):2397-2401. |
| 基于 CT影像学指标和临床病理特征构建预测胆囊癌病人预后的列线图模型 |
| Construction of a nomogram model for predicting the prognosis of patients with gallbladder cancer based on CT imaging indicators and clinicopathological features |
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| DOI：10.3969/j.issn.1009-6469.2023.12.014 |
| 中文关键词: 胆囊肿瘤 体层摄影术， X线计算机 列线图 线性模型 乳酸脱氢酶(LDH) 预后 |
| 英文关键词: Gallbladder neoplasms Tomography, X-ray computer Nomogram Linear models Lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) Prognosis |
| 基金项目:开封市科技发展计划项目( 2103015) |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 目的基于 CT影像学指标和临床病理特征构建预测胆囊癌病人 3年内死亡风险的列线图( Nomogram)模型。方法选取 2011年 1月至 2019年 4月河南大学第一附属医院接收的胆囊癌病人 284例为研究对象，按 1∶1分为建模组( n=142)及验证组( n=142)，根据术后病人 3年内生存状态分为生存组和死亡组。采用 R软件构建预测胆囊癌病人 3年内死亡风险的 Nomo. gram模型。结果生存组( n=45)年龄 ≥60岁比例( 14/45比 57/97)、 T分期为 T2~T3期比例( 19/45比 77/97)、 N分期为 N1~N2期比例( 19/45比 74/97)、胆管侵犯比例( 2/45比 20/97)、十二指肠侵犯比例( 1/45比 17/97)、肝侧受累比例( 17/45比 60/97)、肝侵犯比例(10/45比 52/97)、结肠侵犯比例( 2/45比 18/97)低于死亡组(n=97)(P<0.05)。基于危险因素用 R软件建立 Nomogram模型， Hosmer-Lemeshow拟合优度检验显示，建模组 χ2=6.29，P=0.614；验证组 χ2=7.59，P=0.474；建模组受试者操作特征( ROC)曲线下面积为 0.79；验证组 ROC曲线下面积为 0.81。结论基于 CT影像学指标和临床病理特征构建 Nomogram模型预测胆囊癌病人3年内死亡风险，具有广泛的临床应用价值。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Objective A nomogram model was constructed based on CT imaging indicators and clinicopathological features to pre.dict the risk of death within 3 years in patients with gallbladder cancer.Methods A total of 284 patients with gallbladder cancer treat.ed at the First Affiliated Hospital of Henan University from January 2011 to April 2019 were selected as the study subjects and were di.vided into a modeling group (n=142) and a validation group (n=142) at a ratio of 1∶ 1. According to the survival status of postoperativepatients within 3 years, they were divided into a survival group and a death group. R software was used to construct a nomogram modelfor predicting the risk of death within 3 years in patients with gallbladder cancer.Results In the survival group (n=45), the proportion of age ≥ 60 years (14/45 vs. 57/97), the proportion of T stage T2 to T3 (19/45 vs. 77/97), the proportion of N stage N1 to N2 (19/45 vs. 74/ 97), the proportion of bile duct invasion (2/45 vs. 20/97), the proportion of duodenal invasion (1/45 vs. 17/97), the proportion of hepatic side involvement (17/45 vs. 60/97), the proportion of hepatic invasion(10/45 vs. 52/97), and the proportion of colon invasion (2/45 vs. 18/ 97) were lower than those in the death group (n=97) (P<0.05). Based on the risk factors, a nomogram model was established with R soft. ware, and the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test showed that the modeling group χ2=6.29, P=0.614; the validation group χ2=7.59, P=0.474; the area under the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve was 0.79 in the modeling group; and the area under the ROCcurve was 0.81 in the validation group.Conclusion The construction of a nomogram model based on CT imaging indicators and clini.copathological features to predict the risk of death within 3 years in patients with gallbladder cancer has wide clinical application value. |
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