| 冯松松,陈丽薇,席俊男,等.缺血性脑卒中病人合并慢性便秘风险列线图预测模型的构建及验证[J].安徽医药,2025,29(12):2407-2411. |
| 缺血性脑卒中病人合并慢性便秘风险列线图预测模型的构建及验证 |
| Construction and validation of a risk nomogram prediction model for chronic constipation in patients with ischemic stroke |
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| DOI：10.3969/j.issn.1009-6469.2025.12.016 |
| 中文关键词: 脑梗死 卒中 便秘 影响因素 列线图 预测 |
| 英文关键词: Brain infarction Stroke Constipation Influencing factors Nomogram Prediction |
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| 摘要点击次数: 744 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 目的探讨缺血性脑卒中病人合并慢性便秘的影响因素，构建风险列线图预测模型并进行内部验证。方法前瞻性纳入 2019年 7月至 2022年 6月于黄河三门峡医院就诊的 308例缺血性脑卒中病人为研究对象，记录其基线资料，根据病人是否出现慢性便秘分为非便秘组 236例和便秘组 72例。采用 logistic多因素回归模型筛选缺血性脑卒中病人合并慢性便秘的影响因素；采用 R 3.4.3软件构建缺血性脑卒中病人合并慢性便秘风险列线图预测模型，采用校准曲线检验模型的一致性；绘制受试者操作特征曲线( ROC曲线)评估模型预测效能。结果便秘组年龄 ≥60岁( 86.11%)、每日饮水量 <2 L(93.06%)、每日活动量<1 h(95.83%)、服用钙离子拮抗剂( 91.67%)比例及美国国立卫生研究院卒中量表( NIHSS)评分( 11.24±3.06)分、焦虑自评量表( SAS)评分( 61.71±9.24)分高于非便秘组［ 65.68%、55.08%、52.97%、60.17%、(7.10±2.25)分、(47.62±8.05)分］(P<0.05)。年龄 ≥60岁、每日饮水量 <2 L、每日活动量 <1 h、NIHSS评分、 SAS评分是影响缺血性脑卒中病人合并慢性便秘的独立危险因素(P<0.05)。校准曲线结果显示观察曲线与理想曲线基本吻合， ROC曲线结果显示模型的曲线下面积为 0.98［95%CI:(0.97， 1.00)］。结论缺血性脑卒中病人合并慢性便秘风险列线图预测模型有较高的区分度和校准度，有利于临床医师识别慢性便秘高风险人群。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Objective To explore the influencing factors of chronic constipation in patients with ischemic stroke, construct a risk no-mogram prediction model and conduct internal validation.Methods A total of 308 patients with ischemic stroke who visited YellowRiver Sanmenxia Hospital from July 2019 to June 2022 were prospectively included as the study subjects. The baseline data were re-corded and the patients were grouped into a non constipation group of 236 cases and a constipation group of 72 cases based on whetherthey had chronic constipation. Logistic multiple factor regression model was applied to screen the influencing factors of chronic consti-pation in patients with ischemic stroke; R 3.4.3 software was applied to construct a risk nomogram prediction model for chronic consti-pation in patients with ischemic stroke, the calibration curve applied to verify the consistency of the model; receiver operating character-istic curve (ROC curve) was applied to evaluate the predictive performance of the model.Results The proportions of age ≥ 60 yearsold (86.11%), daily water intake < 2 L (93.06%), daily activity < 1 hour (95.83%), calcium antagonists taken (91.67%), and the scoresof the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) (11.24±3.06) points and self-rating anxiety scale (SAS) (61.71±9.24) points inthe constipation group were higher than those in the non constipation group [65.68%, 55.08%, 52.97%, 60.17%, (7.10±2.25) points,(47.62±8.05) points] (P<0.05). Age ≥ 60 years old, daily water intake < 2 L, daily activity < 1 hour, NIHSS score, SAS score were inde-pendent risk factors for ischemic stroke patients with chronic constipation (P<0.05). The calibration curve results showed that the obser-vation curve was basically consistent with the ideal curve, and the receiver operating characteristic results showed that the area underthe curve of the model was 0.98 [95%CI: (0.97, 1.00)].Conclusion The nomogram prediction model for the risk of chronic constipa-tion in ischemic stroke patients has high discrimination and calibration, which is beneficial for clinical physicians to identify high-risk individuals with chronic constipation. |
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