| 张烨琳,王悦.基于 Joinpoint和年龄 -时期 -队列模型的 1990―2019年中国子宫肌瘤疾病负担趋势分析[J].安徽医药,2026,30(5):918-922. |
| 基于 Joinpoint和年龄 -时期 -队列模型的 1990―2019年中国子宫肌瘤疾病负担趋势分析 |
| Trend analysis of the diseaseburden of uterine fibroids in China from 1990 to 2019 based on Joinpoint and age-period-cohort model |
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| DOI：10.3969/j.issn.1009-6469.2026.05.014 |
| 中文关键词: 子宫肌瘤 发病率 Joinpoint回归模型 伤残调整寿命年 |
| 英文关键词: Uterine fibroids Morbidity Joinpoint regression model Disability-adjusted life year |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目( 82072883) |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 目的分析 1990―2019年中国子宫肌瘤标化发病率和标化伤残调整寿命年( DALY)率的变化趋势，评估不同年龄、时期和出生队列对子宫肌瘤发病和 DALY率的影响，为子宫肌瘤的预防和控制提供科学依据。方法利用 2019全球疾病负担研究(GBD 2019)数据库，采用 Joinpoint回归模型分析中国子宫肌瘤标化发病率和标化 DALY率的变化趋势，基于年龄 -时期 -队列模型探讨年龄、时期和队列对子宫肌瘤发病和 DALY的影响。结果 1990―2019年子宫肌瘤标化发病率和标化 DALY率均呈逐年上升的趋势，标化发病率从 1990年的 120.98/10万上升到 2019年的 133.80/10万，标化 DALY率从 1990年的 16.52/10万上升到 2019年的 17.50/10万。年龄效应显示， 1990―2019年中国子宫肌瘤发病率在 30~34岁组达到最高而后逐渐下降， DALY率在 40~44岁组达到峰值，然后随着年龄的增长逐年下降，在 70~74岁组达到最低值后有逐渐升高的趋势。时期效应结果显示， 1990―2019年子宫肌瘤发病风险和 DALY风险呈逐年下降的趋势。队列效应结果显示，出生越早人的子宫肌瘤发病风险 和 DALY风险越高。结论肌瘤是一个重要的全球女性健康问题，年龄、时期及队列效应是影响子宫肌瘤发生发展的重要因素。其具体发病机制仍不明确，应继续探索子宫肌瘤发病的独立危险因素，以进一步为减少子宫肌瘤发病的干预措施提供依据。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Objective To analyze the changing trend of the incidence of uterine fibroids and the standardized disability-adjusted lifeyear (DALY) rate in China from 1990 to 2019, and to evaluate the effects of different ages, periods and birth cohorts on the incidence ofuterine fibroids and DALY rate, providing scientific basis for the prevention and control of uterine fibroids.Methods The global bur.den of disease study 2019 (GBD 2019) database was used to analyze the trend of standardized incidence and DALY rate of uterine fi.broids in China by Joinpoint regression model. Based on the age-period-cohort model, the effects of age, period and cohort on the inci. dence of uterine fibroids were discussed.Results From 1990 to 2019, the standardized incidence rate and standardized DALY rate ofuterine fibroids showed an increasing trend year by year. The standardized incidence rate increased from 120.98/100 000 in 1990 to133.80/100 000 in 2019, and the standardized DALY rate increased from 16.52/100 000 in 1990 to 17.50/100 000 in 2019. The age ef.fect showed that the incidence of uterine fibroids in China from 1990 to 2019 reached the highest in the 30-34 age group and then grad.ually decreased. The results of period effect showed that the risk of uterine fibroids and DALY risk decreased year by year from 1990 to2019. The results of the cohort effect showed that the earlier the birth, the higher the risk of uterine fibroids and DALY.Conclusions Fibroids are an important global women's health problem. Age, period and cohort effect are important factors affecting the occurrenceand development of uterine fibroids. The specific pathogenesis is still unclear. We should continue to explore the independent risk fac.tors of uterine fibroids, in order to further provide a basis for intervention measures to reduce the incidence of uterine fibroids. |
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