| 陈晓玉,齐亚伟.社区获得性重症细菌性肺炎并发急性肾损伤的风险预测 Nomogram模型分析[J].安徽医药,2026,30(5):923-929. |
| 社区获得性重症细菌性肺炎并发急性肾损伤的风险预测 Nomogram模型分析 |
| Study on Nomogram model for risk prediction of acute kidney injury in patients with community-acquired severe bacterial pneumonia |
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| DOI：10.3969/j.issn.1009-6469.2026.05.015 |
| 中文关键词: 社区获得性肺炎 重症肺炎 急性肾损伤 危险因素 Nomogram模型 |
| 英文关键词: Community acquired pneumonia Severe pneumonia Acute kidney injury Risk factors Nomogram model |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 目的分析社区获得性重症细菌性肺炎并发急性肾损伤的危险因素，并据此构建风险预测 Nomogram模型。方法回顾性分析 2020年 6月至 2023年 6月郑州颐和医院收治的 324例社区获得性重症细菌性肺炎病人的临床资料，按照 2∶1比例采用随机数字表法将其分为建模组( n=216)和验证组( n=108)。根据是否并发急性肾损伤将建模组病人进一步分为急性肾损伤组( n=73)和非急性肾损伤组( n=143)，采用多因素 logistic回归分析法分析社区获得性重症细菌性肺炎并发急性肾损伤的危险因素，并基于此构建风险预测 Nomogram模型。采用 Bootstrap法对列线图模型进行验证，绘制校准曲线评价 Nomogram模型的校准度，绘制受试者操作特征曲线( ROC曲线)评价 Nomogram模型的预测效能，绘制决策曲线验证模型的临床净获益率。结急性肾损伤组和非急性肾损伤组入院时急性生理学和慢性健康状况评价 Ⅱ(APACHE Ⅱ)评分［(18.51±4.21)分比(14.07±3.0果2)分］、序贯器官衰竭评估( SOFA)［( 6.25±1.47)分比( 4.25±0.89)分］、降钙素原( PCT)［( 1.05±0.21)μg/L比( 0.56±0.17)μg/ |
| 英文摘要: |
| Objective To analyze the risk factors for acute kidney injury in patients with community-acquired severe bacterial pneu. monia and construct a risk prediction Nomogram model based on this.Methods The clinical data of 324 patients with community-ac. quired severe bacterial pneumonia admitted to Zhengzhou Yihe Hospital from June 2020 to June 2023 were retrospectively analyzed.They were divided into modeling group (n=216) and verification group (n=108) according to the ratio of 2:1 using a random number ta.ble method. The patients in the modeling group were further divided into acute kidney injury group (n=73) and non acute kidney injury group (n=143) according to whether complicated with acute kidney injury. The risk factors for acute kidney injury in patients with com. munity-acquired severe bacterial pneumonia was analyzed by using multivariate logistic regression analysis, and a risk prediction No.mogram model was constructed based on this. The Bootstrap method was used to verify the Nomogram model, and the calibration curvewas drawn to evaluate the calibration of the Nomogram model. The receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC curve) curve was drawnto evaluate the predictive efficacy of the Nomogram model, and the decision curve was drawn to verify the clinical net benefit rate of themodel. Results There were statistically significant differences in acute physiology and chronic health evaluation Ⅱ (APACHE Ⅱ)score [(18.51±4.21) points vs. (14.07±3.02) points], sequential organ failure assessment(SOFA) [(6.25±1.47) points vs. (4.25±0.89) |
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